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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 22

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model