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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 1-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model