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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.91 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP