Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(4:39) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model