Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 6

(12:58) 3-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 14 yards (59-N.Vigil; 42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model