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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 55

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP