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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 21

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP