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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Pierre at PIT -8. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model