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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.99 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model