Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 63 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 13 yards (48-D.Tuszka). DEN-12-M.Ford was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.18 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model