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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 11

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model