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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 70

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 18 for no gain (12-M.Ford). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at PIT 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.33 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP