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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 42 – Los Angeles Chargers 47

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -0.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model