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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CLE 4 for 20 yards (38-A.Green). Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP