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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen ran ob at CLE 10 for 12 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP