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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.87 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model