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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 3

Cleveland Browns 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(:57) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-98-L.Joseph, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model