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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 93

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to CLE 38, Center-54-M.Overton. 25-D.Felton to CLE 47 for 9 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.52 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 51, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model