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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model