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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 28

Chicago Bears 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model