4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 28

Chicago Bears 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model