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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to LV 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP