Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 14

(5:58) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 17-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model