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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 55

Chicago Bears 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LV 11, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model