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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to CHI 2, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-J.Grant to CHI 19 for 17 yards (32-D.Leavitt; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model