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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to CHI -3, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-J.Grant to CHI 18 for 21 yards (33-R.Teamer).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP