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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 3-M.Haack punts 32 yards to KC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP