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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model