4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to KC 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP