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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:07) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model