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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.13 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model