4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model