4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 7 yards (85-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model