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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 36

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right tackle to ATL 36 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 99-J.Bullard).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model