Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 0

(1:59) 9-C.Nizialek punts 46 yards to WAS 29, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-39-T.Green.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model