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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-Y.Koo punts 45 yards to WAS 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model