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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 70

Washington Commanders 22 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to ATL 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 35-A.Williams to ATL 29 for 4 yards (30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model