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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 19 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP