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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 9-C.Nizialek punts 51 yards to WAS 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 1-D.Carter to WAS 37 for 6 yards (13-C.Blake).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model