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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Punt was muffed by NE 80-Olszewski at NE4 and touched the pylon, creating the touchback

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP