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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model