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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model