Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(7:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 18 for 10 yards (25-T.Homer; 44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.31 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model