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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance scrambles up the middle to SEA 8 for 13 yards (54-B.Wagner). SEA-8-C.Dunlap was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP