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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at SF 40 for 11 yards (56-J.Brooks). Caught at SF 36. 4-YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model