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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 28 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model