4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model