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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain to SEA 34 for 11 yards (49-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.01 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model