Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(10:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to SF 26, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model