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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 6.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.03 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP